🔗 Share this article Will Scotland at last end the New Zealand curse? New Zealand introduced multiple adjustments to the team that overcame the Irish team Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Where: Murrayfield Stadium, the Scottish capital When: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 15:10 GMT Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland. After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match. A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride." Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent. Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued. Recent History Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent. In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory. As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality. Missing Players Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts. Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern. In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations. Replacement Concerns Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time. And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard. Strategic Decisions The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23. Past Encounters Graham crossed the line in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in the previous encounter Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues. Statistical Analysis Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime. Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps. What Scotland Needs During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there. Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand. Final Analysis Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance. Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.